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Floor Speech

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Mr. WARNER. Mr. President, I rise today nearly a month into President Trump's ill-advised war of choice in Iran, which has obviously destabilized the region, disrupted global supply chains, degraded our munitions stockpiles, cost the lives of 13 American servicemembers, with more than 200 additional suffering injuries.

Fortunately, it is clear that even though this was a war of choice and can be decided by the President's own timing, he started this with no clear endgame and without adequately preparing for Iran's very predictable response, which obviously would have included the Strait of Hormuz, which obviously would have included Iran attacking other gulf nation-states.

The intelligence on this is consistent and overwhelming for years and, frankly, closes the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world's most strategically vital maritime checkpoints.

Now, look at the Strait of Hormuz for a moment.

Way back in the seventies, when we had an oil shock, 7 percent of the world's oil went through the strait. Today, 20 percent goes through. Back in the seventies, no natural gas went through the Strait of Hormuz. Now it is close to 20 percent. So the closure of the strait has wreaked havoc on both the global oil and gas supply chains. As I said, normally, about 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait.

Today, traffic through the strait has nearly grounded to a halt. It is literally down 95 percent since the start of the war. The International Energy Agency has already called the effective closure of the strait and all of the other ancillary items coming out of it the worst global energy disruption in history, eclipsing even the Arab oil embargo of 1973--I am old enough to remember that, and the Senator from Maryland is old enough to remember that--which caused huge gas lines and damage all around the world.

So, if we just measure what has happened so far in these 3 weeks- plus--the date of the closure of the strait--it has removed approximately 400 million barrels of oil--around 4 days of the world's supply--from the market. Again, much of the oil that is still getting through had started on tankers before the war started. Those 400 million barrels of oil that have been removed--and that number will rise exponentially now--have led to price increases of around 50 percent for Brent crude. That is the global benchmark for oil.

As well--and this has gotten some coverage in our country but not enough--Iran has also carried out significant strikes on oil and gas facilities throughout the gulf. In total, more than 40 energy sites in 9 countries across the Middle East have been severely damaged due to the conflict, including the world's largest liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar, which is to be closed down. That produces about a fifth of the world's LNG.

Many of the facilities that were not even attacked still took out all of the natural gas from the facilities because, if a missile were to hit them with the gas in the facility, it would cause a massive explosion. While I am no expert here, I have been told to restart those facilities will take weeks to months. The truth is, even if the President feels in his bones today or tomorrow that we have won the war and he stops the bombing-- with no guarantee that Israel will stop or that Iran will stop--and the strait starts to get reopened, we are still going to see economic pain across the globe for weeks, months, or, potentially, a year.

For consumers in the United States, the conflict, obviously, has led to a severe shock at the gas pump. Since the war began, average gas prices in the United States have increased by about $1 a gallon--30 percent. I will take a bet with anybody in this Chamber that we are going to see an average gas price of $4 that will be maintained for some time. That $4 price will be the highest since 2022.

And, here, let's take the optimistic view. Even if the strait is reopened today, the average household in our country will still be expected to pay about $740 more in gas prices for the remainder of the year. That is just gas.

What about diesel?

While Americans are struggling at the pump, skyrocketing diesel costs are threatening to increase the pain for households across a series of domains. Last week, diesel prices eclipsed $5 per gallon on average. That was only the second time in history that diesel got above 5 bucks, and that is about 40 percent higher than before the war began. Diesel is the trucking industry's second largest expense, and for most trucking firms, that diesel cost accounts for about 20 percent of the total operating costs. For most freight companies, a 40-percent rise in the diesel cost results in about an overall increase of 10 percent on all the items that are shipped. We depend on the trucking industry to ship goods. If their costs go up 10 percent, they are not going to pay it. That is going to get passed on to consumers. That will mean everything in the supply chain from lumber that is used to construct homes to groceries and everything in between.

And while we Americans are already feeling the impact at the pump, many nations across the globe, particularly in Asia, are facing even more extreme costs. Of the, roughly, 20 percent of the world's oil and gas that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, about 80 percent goes to Asia, and the impacts there have been even wilder. Oil prices have hit 150 bucks a barrel.

As the supply tightens and prices skyrocket, one country, the Philippines--literally because they get 100 percent of their oil from the gulf--has said we can't operate a full economy, so there is a mandatory 1-day-a-week holiday.

Vietnam has urged its residents to work from home. Cambodia and Laos have closed about a third to 40 percent of their gas stations because they just don't have fuel.

Now, we buy a lot of stuff from Asia--from Vietnam, from Bangladesh, from the Philippines, from China, from everywhere. If those costs have gone up 40 percent, all the stuff we buy from those countries are going to go up for American consumers as well. So whether it is electronics, clothes, appliances, if you haven't seen a price increase yet, don't worry. It is coming very shortly, and it will be significant.

Let's talk about jet fuel.

Americans can also expect to pay more on air travel due to the war in Iran as the price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the conflict has begun. In many cases, airlines have already responded by raising fares and canceling flights. Some estimates indicate the airlines have raised fares about 20 bucks each way--going and coming--on average. As a matter of fact, United recently raised its fares 15 to 20 percent just last week. Also, United, which, I think, is a precursor of things to come, has literally eliminated a number of long-haul flights. So, for anyone who is planning on going to Europe, who is planning on going to Asia or who is planning on going to South America--maybe not cross- country flights yet--your choices are going to drop dramatically.

This is all related to oil, natural gas, and jet fuel, but the fact is that the President's war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz is really wreaking havoc on a lot of industries from semiconductors to new cars. Let me tell you why.

For example, the current situation is threatening to upend the global semiconductor industry and other advanced technology industries by impacting the availability of a crucial input--helium.

Now, most of us here at home think about helium as what we use for party balloons. Senator Van Hollen, I know, has used it many times to make his voice sound higher as well, but--and I didn't realize this-- helium is also a critical input in many advanced technology industries: chipmaking, medical imagery, aerospace. The truth is, there is no viable replacement for this helium.

Qatar is the world's second largest supplier of helium behind the United States, and they literally produce, approximately, a third of the world's supply--about 63 million cubic meters out of a total of 190 million cubic meters produced globally.

So, if the strait stays closed, you get rid of 27 to 30 percent of the world's supply of helium. Again, it is a global market. Spot prices on helium have already doubled, and the costs could rise another 50 percent if the strait remains closed.

The nations, again, that are going to get hit first on this are Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, which, again, are home to some of the world's most advanced chip facilities. None of the chips we put in our rockets in the most advanced jet fighters are made in America. They are all made in Taiwan.

So what is going to happen?

The chip facilities in Taiwan and South Korea believe that about 70 percent of their helium comes from the gulf. If it goes away, they can't replace that. There are no such things as helium strategic reserves.

Again, if the President says, OK. He feels it in his bones, ``I won the war. I am going to stop,'' it will take weeks, not days, to restart the Qatar helium production, meaning that, even in these next couple of weeks, with already the spot pricing doubling, there is going to be a supply chain risk that will take place over the coming weeks and months.

Aluminum. This closure is also disrupting the aluminum supply chain-- a material essential for construction, transportation, energy generation, and more. The region, again--and I didn't realize this before the war--accounts for, approximately, 9 percent of all global aluminum production. Major smelters--I think there are four in the world, and two are in the region--have been forced to curtail supply due to the continued closure of the strait. Since the war began 3 or 4 weeks ago, global aluminum prices have spiked to their highest rate in the last 4 years.

Again, that is what we have seen so far, and a prolonged closure could see significant impacts here in America. Today, we rely on the Middle East for about 20 percent of our imported aluminum. Even before the war with Iran had started, aluminum prices in our country were at record highs due to the President's tariff policy of putting 50-percent tariffs on aluminum products. So, if you add the tariff policy with already high aluminum prices and shut down some of the smelters, this is going to drive up the cost of aluminum not just around the world but in the United States as well. A lot of aluminum goes into autos. If you are thinking about buying a new car, it may not be a good time. It may be better to buy today than a month from now, but the cost is going to go up.

The President's war of choice in Iran is also threatening global food production and the livelihood of farmers in the United States and across the world. Typically, about one-third of all fertilizer shipped globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz; but not dissimilar to the oil and gas production and transit, that fertilizer exiting the gulf has literally ground to a virtual 100-percent halt just as the spring growing season is starting in America.

I talked to a farmer in Amelia County in central Virginia. His costs have already gone up 40 percent, and that means that the back end when he collects--when his products grow, who is going to eat those costs? American consumers.

The United States relies on the Middle East for about 15 percent of our fertilizer inputs. This has already caused--as I said, in Amelia, it was 40 percent--nationwide, a 30-percent increase in fertilizer prices in America. That fertilizer shortage has also been already shortened because we are short on nitrogen, and we are short on potash, which we get from Canada, again, because of the tariff policy. So what we grow and what the costs are for this growing season are going to be dramatically affected. Where is that going to show up? Prices at the grocery store.

Now, how has the President responded to this energy crisis caused by his war of choice?

On Truth Social, he stated: When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.

Who exactly is making that money?

It is not ordinary Americans who were paying more than $380 million a day just on the increased price of gasoline before the war started.

As a matter of fact, if you are going to pick winners and losers at this point, American consumers are losers across five or six different domains. The winners? Russia and Iran.

And this is the one that kind of just blows my mind. In response to rising oil prices, President Trump and his Secretary of the Treasury announced he was lifting sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude. What does that translate into? That translates into more than $14 billion to the bad Government of Iran, who is shooting at American soldiers, who is bombing our allies. That $14 billion could be a lifeline to that government.

I still remember like back under Obama, where I think there was some payment around the JCPOA with $300-plus million released to Iran. Every one of my Republican colleagues said: Oh my God. This is the worst thing ever--the worst thing ever. How could this happen?

Well, now, in the middle of a war--we weren't in a war at that point--in the middle of a war where Iran is attacking us, this President has given a green light to fund $14 billion to the Iranian regime--funding our enemies. How is that in America's best interest?

In another master stroke by the ``king of deals,'' President Trump lifted the sanctions on approximately 130 million barrels of Russian oil, directly helping Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

You know, recent reports indicate that Russia has already earned about $230 million per day on crude oil exports during the first 2 weeks of Iran's war. Since February, that is about $10 billion. What is that $10 billion going to buy? It is going to buy Russian drones, Russian tanks, Russian missiles--maybe call me old-fashioned--that are attacking and killing our allies in Ukraine--the allies that, thank goodness, we have supplied military equipment to, and we are funding their enemy.

Now, again, you start a war of choice, you think about these things. You think about the ramifications and the cost increases. You think about how this would affect our allies. You think about, do we really want to benefit our enemies? You think about the fact that maybe we ought to have a plan to get American nationals out of the Middle East before the war starts. You might even say, maybe I will quietly tell Saudis and Emiratis and others: Hey, store up some oil and natural gas because this war is going to start.

The President says he didn't think they would close the Strait of Hormuz; he didn't think Iran would attack the gulf countries.

I sit as vice chair on the Intelligence Committee. The intelligence community has been absolute not for weeks, months, but for years that if you start a war with Iran--and the Iranians are bad guys. Prior Presidents, including President Trump--I remember one time he was going to bomb Iran in his first term, and he pulled back because of all of the implications of starting that war without enough planning.

So he started into this war of choice with no planning on how we protect Americans, on what this is going to do to American consumers. Hey, does it really make sense in this war to fund our enemies Iran and Russia?

This is what happens when strategy, actual strategy, is replaced with impulse; planning is replaced by wishful thinking; and warning from our intelligence professionals whose job it is to make these predictions, who made the prediction that there was no imminent threat--when those intelligence professionals are ignored instead of heeded.

Now, we can't fully predict the full, long-term impacts of President Trump's war of choice in Iran, but we can make a pretty damn good conclusion at this point on who is going to get hit the worst: working- class Americans.

We all talk about affordability--both sides. You know, it is hard for a single political figure--even the President--to dramatically bring down prices, but it sure is not hard for a single political figure--in this case, the President of the United States--to raise prices: fertilizer, aluminum, helium, jet fuel, diesel fuel.

I just hope everybody will remember every time you go to the gas pump and you look at that price--Lord knows this happened when prices rose under Biden. There were these cute little stickers saying: Joe Biden did this.

Well, there is no doubt in my mind and, frankly, on any factual basis, when you gas up your car every week and you see that extra dollar or dollar-and-a-half increase in price, that price was brought to you by one political figure in America: the President of the United States.

We are going to feel the consequences of this war for a long time to come, and everything I talked about here gets exponentially worse--not on a linear timeline but an exponentially long, worse timeline--if the strait remains closed.

Americans deserve better. Our servicemembers who are in harm's way deserve better. Frankly, the world deserves better.

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